The reinforcement of the US aeronaval posture in the Middle East is continuing at a rapid pace, with a potential window for an American strike against Iran possibly opening in the coming days.

As far as the naval component is concerned, the arrival of the Carrier Strike Group (CSG) centred on the aircraft carrier USS LINCOLN is expected between tomorrow and Sunday (the group is currently north of the Maldives). The CSG is composed of the eponymous aircraft carrier, embarking 1 F-35C squadron (VMFA 314), 1 F/A-18F squadron (VFA 41), 1 EA-18G squadron (VAQ 133), 2 F/A-18E squadrons (VFA 14 and VFA 151), as well as 2 MH-60 helicopter squadrons, 1 E-2D HAWKEYE AEW squadron and 1 CMV-22B OSPREY tiltrotor squadron, plus 3 ARLEIGH BURKE-class destroyers. Another 2 BURKE-class destroyers are already deployed in the Gulf (together with 3 INDEPENDENCE-class Littoral Combat Ships), while another is reportedly operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, at least 1 VIRGINIA-class SSN is expected to be present in the area of operations, and possibly also an OHIO-class SSGN.

While awaiting the arrival of the LINCOLN CSG, a substantial movement of aircraft from the United States and Europe toward military bases in the Middle East has been recorded in recent days.

More specifically, on 18 January the deployment began of 2 F-15E squadrons based in the United Kingdom (including the 494th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron), for a total of 24 aircraft, to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, where 1 F-15E squadron (12 aircraft) was already present. Also deployed are 1 F-16 squadron, reportedly at Prince Sultan Air Base (Saudi Arabia), and 1 A-10 squadron, also based at Muwaffaq Salti. There are reportedly also 2 F-35 squadrons in theatre, although this cannot be confirmed at present. At the Emirati base of Al Dhafra, 3 MQ-4C TRITON HALE UAVs are deployed.

With regard to the support component, over the past week the United States has significantly increased the number of KC-135 aerial refuelling tankers deployed at Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar), which should now number around 20. During the second half of January, intense C-17 strategic airlift activity from the United States and Europe toward the Middle East has also been observed, suggesting a possible reinforcement of air defence assets in the region.

Finally, yesterday the United Kingdom announced the deployment to Qatar of the UK–Qatar Joint Squadron 12 equipped with Eurofighter TYPHOON aircraft. In practice, however, it appears that only 4 fighters have arrived in Qatar, while another 4 are expected to be deployed to Saudi Arabia and 4 have remained at RAF Akrotiri (Cyprus).

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