Last week, violent armed clashes broke out along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, in the mountainous region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

On the night of Saturday, October 11, according to reports from Islamabad, Afghan Taliban forces attacked Pakistani Armed Forces positions in several districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, capturing some of them. The attacks came just hours after the Taliban government accused Pakistan of violating Afghan territorial sovereignty and conducting targeted bombings to eliminate leaders of the terrorist group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Kabul. There are reports of dozens of casualties on both sides, making these the deadliest cross-border clashes in recent years. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), on Thursday, October 9, at least 37 civilians were killed and another 425 wounded in the Afghan regions of Paktya, Paktika, Kunar, Khost, Kandahar, and Helmand, all located along the Pakistani border.

Tensions between the two countries have intensified since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021. The Pakistani government has long accused Kabul of safe heaven to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Pakistani armed Islamist group responsible for more than 2,500 deaths in Pakistan over the past four years. Just last week, at least three senior Pakistani officers and 20 soldiers were killed in attacks attributed to the TTP. Islamabad's discontent has also been heightened by United Nations reports indicating Afghan Taliban support for the group, stating that the TTP has maintained or expanded training centers in Afghan provinces such as Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost, and Paktika.

The TTP, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is an alliance of militant groups that was officially formed in 2007 following Pakistani military operations against fighters linked to Al-Qaeda in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Founded under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud, the group operates along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and, according to some estimates, has between 30,000 and 35,000 members. Its aim is to establish and maintain areas of de facto control in the tribal regions along the Afghan-Pakistani border, especially in the former FATA, which was integrated into the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2018 through the 25th amendment to the Pakistani Constitution. This reform abolished the FATA self-governance system and enshrined the full application of Pakistani laws, ending the semi-autonomous status of these areas.

In this context, the recurring clashes with the Pakistani Armed Forces are a direct reflection of the TTP's desire to operate independently of the central authority in Islamabad, denying the legitimacy of state institutions in those territories. Over the years, the TTP has sought to destabilize the country with attacks on the Pakistani Army, bombings, and political assassinations, exploiting the porosity and permeability of the Durand Line (the 2,600 km border between Afghanistan and Pakistan never officially recognized by Kabul) and the ambiguity of relations between non-state armed actors and the Afghan Taliban regime, partly due to their shared Pashtun ethnicity.

Before the fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan was largely satisfied with the status quo, which included relatively limited insurgent activity along the western border. Military operations ZARB-E-AZB (2014) and RADD-UL-FASAAD (2017) had significantly reduced the TTP's offensive capabilities. However, with the gradual disengagement of the United States from Afghanistan, culminating in its withdrawal in August 2021, the status quo has changed dramatically.

For its part, the Taliban regime rejects the accusations: Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, speaking from New Delhi, said that Afghanistan “does not provide refuge” to TTP militants and that the situation is “under control.” However, the Afghan Ministry of Defense has accused Pakistan of carrying out air raids on Afghan territory—including Kabul—in violation of national sovereignty. Pakistan, for its part, has neither confirmed nor denied the accusation. The cross-border attacks, mainly using artillery and mortars, with Pakistan also using TB-2 and FPV drones, come amid growing tensions, exacerbated by the recent diplomatic rapprochement between Afghanistan and India.

On October 16, after days of violence and armed clashes, the two sides agreed to a 48-hour temporary ceasefire, which came into effect at 6 p.m. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry announced the agreement, explaining that it provides for the resumption of dialogue to find “a positive solution to this complex but solvable issue.” Despite the truce, the situation at the border remains extremely unstable. The Afghan Taliban, grappling with a severe economic crisis, do not seem capable of effectively managing the areas where the TTP operates. At the same time, the Pakistani Army could decide on new military operations if the attacks continue.

This morning, a few hours after the announcement of the extension of the truce for another 48 hours, a suicide attack in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region killed seven Pakistani soldiers, underscoring how fragile the situation along the border remains. The risk of a new escalation is real, with the possibility of further strengthening the militant insurgency and instability in the entire region.

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