Yesterday morning, Ukraine attacked the main bases of the Russian Strategic Aviation with FPV drones launched from within Russian territory.

This is an incredible operation, probably unparalleled in history, a surprise attack and a shock to Russia, reminiscent of Pearl Harbor.

As far as we have been able to reconstruct so far, Operation SPIDER WEB hit at least four bases: Olenya (Murmansk Oblast), Belaya (Irkutsk Oblast), Severny (Ivanovo Oblast) and Diaghilev (Ryazan Oblast). We have more information about the first two: videos seem to show that at least 6 Tu-95Ms (five in Olenya and one in Belaya), 4 Tu-22M3s and 1 An-12 were hit. These are partial figures that could increase, considering that a total of 17 Tu-95Ms, about 60 Tu-22M3s, about 30 Mig-31s and a dozen transport aircraft (An-26 and An-12) were deployed at the two bases in recent days.

The most incredible thing is how the operation was conducted: about 100 FPV drones took off from double bottoms in the roofs of containers transported by trucks near the air bases; the Russian telephone network appears to have been used to control them and transmit images, while artificial intelligence algorithms were used to recognise and hit targets, with the FPVs acting in total autonomy (also because directly piloting such a large number of drones within Russian territory would have been rather complicated). It should be noted that Ukraine has been investing in AI-based guidance systems for drones for over a year now to counter Russian jamming and therefore have excellent expertise in this field (also thanks to US support) - we would recommend to read our article on FW MAG 1/2025 and this exclusive interview.

At the moment, it remains unclear how these containers loaded with FPVs entered Russian territory. It cannot be ruled out that the drones themselves were manufactured and assembled directly in Russia; cross-referencing several sources, it has emerged that the systems may have been manufactured in a warehouse in the Chelyabinsk Oblast, on the border with Kazakhstan.

From the images, it appears that each container contained about twenty drones, meaning that at least five trucks (one per base) were used. After releasing the swarms of drones, the trucks were blown up using self-destruction mechanisms. The Ukrainian services claimed responsibility for the attack and said they had hit over 40 aircraft, while the operation had been planned for over a year and a half.

This operation completely changes the equation of the war and sends a clear message to Western countries: with a large number of low-cost systems and exemplary planning, devastating asymmetric attacks can be carried out, against which even a country like Russia, engaged in this war for over three years, does not seem to be equipped to defend itself.

We will now see what Moscow's response will be, as it could launch massive drone and missile attacks against Ukraine in the coming hours (at the time of writing, an air alert has been declared throughout eastern Ukraine). We also cannot rule out a possible “strategic” response with medium/long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear capability, but armed with conventional warheads, as has been done in the past with the ORESHNIK missile.

According to the latest information, there appears to have been a fifth target, the Ukrainka airbase (Amur Oblast), but the truck exploded before launching the drones. Furthermore, it is unclear whether the Engels base was also attacked, from which, according to Russian sources, all aircraft took off as a preventive measure to escape the attack, but we are currently unable to verify this.

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