A few days ago, John Summers, Director of Programmes at Global Ordnance, one of the largest suppliers of 155 mm and 152 mm artillery shells (and other former Warsaw Pact calibres, such as 122 mm), gave an interview to TWZ (The War Zone), in which he highlighted a significant problem, namely the shortage of trinitrotoluene (TNT) needed to produce the explosives in the projectile warheads.

The situation is further aggravated by the demand for TNT from mining companies and the rising price of the material, which has quadrupled in recent years and, as Summers himself stated, is around $45 per kg for US government customers. So, considering that a 155 mm projectile contains about 10 kg of TNT, producing a single quantity would require $450 worth of TNT.

The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are drastically reducing the amount of this material available. The US has not produced TNT for decades, specifically since 1986, and the few factories in Europe are not sufficient to meet the ever-increasing demand for ammunition.

From 2020 to 2022, Global Ordnance transferred 2,000 tonnes of TNT to the United States, both for the US government and for commercial sales, thanks to a supply contract with Zarya, a factory located in Lugansk, Ukraine. Now, with the war in Ukraine, this supply chain has broken down and the only alternative is to source the material from other countries, despite the US's intention to build a TNT production plant in Kentucky to meet its commercial needs of around 2 million tonnes.

Building a factory is very costly in terms of environmental impact, so for many defence companies it is much more convenient to source the material elsewhere than to invest in TNT production. For this very reason, it would be interesting to understand why the US has decided to bring production back home now.

According to Douglas Bush, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology, and Major General John T. Reim, Executive Director of the Joint Armament and Munitions Programme, the intention is to control and protect the supply chain in an era of growing global challenges, in order to rapidly manufacture large quantities of ammunition for both the US Armed Forces and international partners. The construction of the new factory would therefore be of great strategic importance for the US.

However, the problem is not only TNT, but also, and above all, nitrocellulose, which is essential for producing propellants for all types of projectiles. Although nitrocellulose is easier to produce, the quantities produced do not meet demand.

Currently, the largest producer of TNT and nitrocellulose is China, which NATO countries exclude as a possible partner. Russia, on the other hand, has no problem sourcing supplies from Chinese companies. According to Defense Express, Russia purchased over 1,300 tonnes of nitrocellulose from China in 2023.

Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it is necessary to understand how NATO intends to quickly supply the 3 million projectiles that President Zelensky expects to receive in 2025, as stated on Sunday 4 May in Prague during an official visit to the Czech Republic.

Perhaps this is precisely why the US has decided to invest again in local TNT production. It should be noted, in fact, that Western defence companies have increasingly specialised in the production of projectiles with explosives that are insensitive or more effective than TNT. However, the latter remains the cheapest material and therefore the most suitable for the manufacture of large numbers of projectiles in a short time, as required by current circumstances.

Europe aims to increase the manufacture of propellants and projectiles. In particular, Rheinmetall intends to increase its powder production capacity by 50% by 2028, but this is not enough. According to Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, production would need to be doubled from 10,000 tonnes to over 20,000 tonnes per year to meet demand.

The EU has adopted Regulation 2023/1525 ASAP (Ammunition Support Act), which mobilises €500 million to increase the availability of artillery ammunition (and missiles) and thus achieve the target of producing 2 million projectiles in 2025.

However, these initiatives should be accompanied by a supply chain for TNT and solid nitrocellulose capable of sustaining the increase in production; otherwise, the current problem of raw material shortages will remain unchanged.

With China excluded from the TNT and nitrocellulose supply chain, the primary challenge for NATO countries will be to decide whether to invest in building local factories or whether to focus on identifying reliable and effective foreign partners.

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