
It had to happen sooner or later. And here we are at the moment of reckoning between Tripoli's Prime Minister Dbeibah and his loyal forces on one side, and the leaders of the capital's militias on the other.
The bone of contention is the autonomy of the latter, their varied economic and mafia interests, and the Tripoli government's need to strengthen its authority and credibility.
The spark was the killing of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, the 'boss” of the Abu Salim neighbourhood and leader of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) militia. The killing took place in the style of a classic mafia ambush: the man, along with six of his men, had been summoned (“to resolve differences”) to the headquarters of Brigade 444, loyal to Dbeibah and led by Mahmoud Hamza. The incident triggered fierce clashes which, according to the Tripoli authorities, culminated in the conquest of Abu Salim by government forces.
The game is not over yet because, according to this morning's news, forces loyal to the Prime Minister – starting with the militia from Misrata, the Prime Minister's hometown – have also attacked the strongholds of another “autonomous” militia, the Salafist RADA, which controls Mittiga airport and is led by the notorious Abdul Rauf Kara.
Njeem Osama Elmasry, who was arrested in Turin in recent months on an ICC (International Criminal Court) warrant for war crimes and crimes against humanity, but then sent back to Libya for national security reasons, also belongs to RADA.
The situation at the moment is fluid. Dbeibah is trying, backed by Turkey, while the attitude of the Revolutionary Brigades of Tripoli and the militia of the powerful city of Zawiya, about 45 km west of Tripoli (whose forces appear to be moving towards the capital), is unclear at the moment. This situation is certainly not to Italy's liking, which, in addition to supporting Dbeibah, maintains strong ties, thanks to the traditional work on the ground of ENI and AISE (External Information and Security Agency), with a whole series of local actors (from Tripoli and elsewhere...). Rome must therefore act quickly if it wants to maintain a proper balance with Ankara.
Meanwhile, there are reports of a mobilisation of General Haftar's forces in Cyrenaica and Sirte. Haftar, who took part in the 9 May parade in Moscow and was received with full honours by Putin, may be tempted to take advantage of the chaos in the capital to gain ground. However, Ankara is unlikely to allow this.