After more than 6 months, it seems that the forces of the Ukraine are definitely withdrawing from the Russian Oblast of Kursk.

According to some, this is not a real retreat, and Kiev is in fact carrying out a planned withdrawal in stages. According to this theory, the attacks that the Ukrainians launched a few weeks ago from the eastern flank of the captured salient were aimed at disorientating Russian troops, delaying their planned offensive and gaining precious time for the current retreat. It may well be that this is the case... But to be honest, we do not think so at all.

The reality of the situation is that on 8 March the Ukrainian forces' hold on Sudzha had almost suddenly become untenable, most likely due to the sudden cessation of intelligence/ISTAR sharing from the US. Not only were Russian troops heavily hitting the area with UMPK bombs and UAVs/FPVs (the latter in unusual numbers), but they had also managed to infiltrate parts of the town. There has even been speculation that Russian soldiers used an underground gas pipeline to enter the city, but the whole affair remains far from clear.

What is unequivocal, however, is the fact that until yesterday Ukrainian Special Forces and elements of the 129th Territorial Defence Brigade fought hard to cover the retreat of the rest of the units, with the Russians managing to enter the centre of Sudzha in the late afternoon. Meanwhile, to the east of the town, other Russian forces advanced and occupied some Ukrainian defensive lines that were now empty, and were immediately targeted by the Kiev forces with drones and artillery.

Perhaps this is why someone has spoken, with a good dose of ‘wishful thinking’, of a planned retreat complete with traps and ambushes against advancing Russian troops; in reality, these tactics appear to us to be in line with the consolidated and effective rearguard slowing actions that the Ukrainian troops have been implementing for some time when they are forced to give up ground. Be that as it may, to the southeast of the salient, Russian and North Korean units have meanwhile maintained pressure from the Kurilovka area, increasing the risk of encirclement for the Ukrainian forces.

However, even if there had been something planned, it seems to us that the Ukrainian retreat has been accelerated especially by the Russian offensive that is still acting on the western flank of the salient, and which, starting from the areas of Nikolaevo-Darino and Sverdlikovo, threatens to cut the H07 road, which is the main supply route for the Ukrainian forces still inside the said salient.

At the moment, some border villages in the Oblast of Sumy, such as Zhuravka and Novenke, have been overrun, with Russian forces possibly reaching Basivka. We believe that this is where it will be decided whether the Ukrainian retreat will be successful or whether the current risks of encirclement will materialise. The full utilisation of the H07, in fact, had already been compromised before the current offensive by the aforementioned increasing Russian use of UMPK and drones.

Precisely for this reason, supplies to the advanced logistics hub in Sudzha had become problematic and in recent months the Kursk salient had practically halved compared to the unexpected successes of last summer.

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