After last Friday's Oval Office duel, President Trump suspended the delivery of US military aid to Ukraine. According to White House officials, the halt will remain in place until Trump determines Zelensky’s commitment to peace talks.

Trump’s order applies to both instruments used to transfer arms to Kyiv: the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the President to transfer weapons and equipment very quickly without going through Congress, and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which finances direct purchases with US companies. In the latter case, the President suspended the delivery of equipment from Pentagon stockpiles.

This $1 billion blow will be very hard for Ukraine. In fact, it is not just the equipment that would be affected, but the entire support system. For example, spare parts for the equipment that the US has supplied to Kyiv in recent years will be at stake. These include more than 300 BRADLEY infantry fighting vehicles, 40 HIMARS rocket launchers and 12 batteries of NASAMS medium-range surface-to-air missiles. But also more than 3 million 155 mm artillery shells, 200 155 mm howitzers, over 100,000 Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) type mines, among others.

There are also more important aspects: strategic advising and the provision of intelligence, in the form of electronic espionage (thanks to the electronic libraries that are the exclusive prerogative of American agencies...) and satellite surveillance, by Washington's advisers and unique specialised platforms: RQ-180 penetration drones, the large U-2 spy aircraft and GLOBAL HAWK strategic UAVs, Joint STARS battlefield surveillance aircraft and, indeed, Washington's mass of spy satellites - KEYHOLE-12, the satellites of the SBIRS (Space-Based Infrared System) constellation, and more. These are factors that, from the very beginning, have constituted the real Ukrainian competitive advantage over Russia. Not to forget the access to STARLINK, which, if denied, would deprive Ukraine of its ability to strike accurately with artillery and to control and manoeuvre drones, especially naval ones, at great distances.

This could be partly compensated by European support, especially in the field of artillery and anti-aircraft defence, thanks to the role of German industries, particularly Rheinmetall. However, Europe cannot catch up with the US in the short term in terms of intelligence and logistics. Actually, it could not reasonably do so for the next five to ten years, as the US does today.