Ukraine's remaining stocks of long-range missiles like ATACMS and STORM SHADOW/SCALP-EG are critically low, with operational constraints and geopolitical factors shaping their usage.
The US supplied approximately 500 ATACMS missiles starting in October 2023, but by November 2024, only around 50 remained after extensive strikes against occupied Ukrainian territories and Russian targets. Despite criticism over perceived inefficiencies—such as deploying multiple missiles per target—Ukraine’s tactical decisions were influenced by uncertainty over future approvals for cross-border strikes and reliance on US-led targeting oversight. Following authorization to strike within Russia, Ukrainian forces launched 31 ATACMS at high-value targets like command centres and fuel depots before supplies dwindled. Similarly, European allies face shortages.
The UK’s STORM SHADOW and France’s SCALP-EG missiles saw limited use, with only 14 confirmed launches from an undisclosed total stockpile. France pledged an additional 40 SCALP-EGs in January 2024, supplementing earlier deliveries of 50, while the UK hinted at minimal remaining reserves. Both nations are now prioritizing alternatives like HAMMER precision bombs. Meanwhile, the US retains larger ATACMS stocks classified as strategic reserves for global contingencies, though ongoing production serves allies like Poland and Taiwan, not Ukraine.
The future of Western missile support appears bleak. Political shifts, particularly the Trump administration’s opposition to cross-border strikes, could halt ATACMS deliveries and disable the intelligence architecture required for targeting. This pressure may extend to European systems, forcing Ukraine to rely increasingly on domestically developed long-range drones for deep strikes.
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