A "German" tipping point for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP), aimed not only at replacing the 4 VICTORIA class boats in service for over 20 years, but also at tripling the underwater force of the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN).
On July 6, the Canadian Government announced it had selected the Type-212CD submarine offered by Germany's TKMS, with the goal of starting the replacement of the boats currently in service within a decade.
VICTORIA, WINDSOR, CORNER BROOK and CHICOUTIMI, commissioned between 2000 and 2004, are the diesel-electric UPHOLDER class boats built for the Royal Navy in 1983-1990, decommissioned after only a few years of service, and then sold to Canada in 1998. They have been problematic units, having spent more time in the shipyard for modifications and repairs than at sea, with CHICOUTIMI damaged by a fire almost immediately after transfer and becoming operational only in 2015. They are currently undergoing a Submarine Life Extension (SELEX) program, meant to extend their service life to 2035-2040, which on average leaves the Canadian fleet with only 1 fully operational boat.
With the CPSP, launched in 2021, the RCN revived the old plan of the 1980s to acquire 12 boats. Back then a nuclear option was on the table (briefly resurfacing under the CPSP as well); now the choice has fallen on next-generation AIP designs, with Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking of "at least 12 boats," opening the door to possible additional options.
From the summer of 2025 the competition narrowed to the South Korean KSS-III Batch-II by Hanwha Ocean and the 212CD by TKMS, which ultimately prevailed. The decision is also political, meant to strengthen Canada's ties to NATO's European pillar by favoring one of its leading firms, as an alternative to the transpacific axis pursued by Trump's United States and its involvement of the South Korean industry. That said, both the Type-212CD and the KSS-III Batch-II (which remains the fallback option, should the contract with TKMS not be finalized by 2027) are high-end AIP boats, with generous dimensions, advanced range and stealth performance, and margins for customization involving Canadian shipbuilders.
Given the worsening international situation, delivery is set to be accelerated compared to the original 2034 deadline, with the first 4 boats built directly by TKMS — even at the risk of slowing construction of the units earmarked for Norway and Germany, which are willing to hand over the 2 already laid down and to provide training and logistic support — and with limited initial involvement of the Canadian industry. A national coproduction and maintenance line would be activated for the subsequent batches, given that the project is worth approximately €62 billion – CAD 100 billion.
The Type-212CD submarines, 74 m long and displacing 2,800 t, are smaller than the South Korean boats (15 m longer, displacing up to 4,000 t), which feature vertical launch cells for cruise missiles. The 212CD, however, offers a capability considered strategic by the RCN in order to operate under the Arctic ice cap: a longer submerged endurance, greater than the roughly 20 days assured by the KSS-III Batch-II. The German boat uses a more advanced 4th-generation AIP plant, with lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries, allowing a mission endurance of 41 days, of which at least 21 fully submerged.
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