Following yesterday's Iranian announcement of a deal reached - flatly denied by Trump - a new ceasefire breach was recorded overnight, in line with the "tit for tat" logic that now appears to be taking hold.

Iran blocked an American tanker from transiting through Hormuz, and the US struck a target in the Bandar Abbas area. In response, the IRGC launched drones against Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait.

In essence, a non-cooperative action is being met with an equally non-cooperative, symmetrical response - with both sides carefully stopping short of crossing the threshold into open war.

Washington and Tehran continue to fight in the cognitive domain (Trump's posts on Truth Social, Iranian memes, etc.), trade limited jabs over Hormuz, and keep negotiating. Both believe they can manipulate the time variable to their own advantage - as Trump himself acknowledged, telling the Iranians they are wrong to think that approaching Midterm elections constrain him, while Tehran holds firm despite a dire economic situation, relying on traditional Persian resilience.

The sense is that the sub-threshold standoff could continue for some time, but that at some point a (partial) deal will emerge - perhaps following the same pattern already seen in Gaza: deferral of the thorniest issues and consolidation of the de facto situation on the ground. Not an encouraging scenario for global economic stability.

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